Better decisions in an uncertain world.
Uncertain Decisions brings risk, uncertainty and decision-making together: working out what to do, doing it, and living with the results. For individuals, organisations and governments.
Your life hasn't been lived before. Every significant choice - where to live, who to trust, which path to take - is made with incomplete information about an uncertain future. The same is true for every business, every team, and every government. And yet most of us, most of the time, make our most important decisions without any real framework for doing so.
Uncertain Decisions exists to change that. Drawing on risk management, decision theory, psychology, philosophy, project management, decision-making and decision-doing, plus decades of practical experience across business, government, and personal life, this site provides structured, accessible tools for thinking more clearly about risk, uncertainty, and the decisions they shape.
At the heart of Uncertain Decisions
1. Decisions and risks belong together
Every decision carries risk, and many decisions are about risk. Treating them as separate subjects, with separate books, courses and specialists, produces worse outcomes for both.
2. Uncertainty is unavoidable. Embrace it.
Uncertainty cannot be removed, ignored or wished away. Accepting it as the medium we live and work in, rather than an obstacle to avoid, leads to better decisions, and better outcomes you can live with.
3. We need the best outcomes, not the objective
It's crucial that we understand the outcomes from our decisions and the risks that we take. We may have to live with the outcomes long after a decision and its objective is forgotten.
4. We are taught too little about them
Few of us, and few of our leaders, are taught how to make good decisions, to manage risks, to carry out decisions, and to learn from the results. We usually muddle through without a method, and with minimal learning for the next one.
Everything on this site, from the books and the Decision Cycle to the questions, the tools and what is still to come, is concerned with these four ideas.
Who it is for
For Individuals
Whether you're facing a career choice, a financial decision, or a personal crossroads, the frameworks here will help you think more clearly and decide more confidently. Life is full of choices, risks and opportunities that you can manage - if you know how.
Personal resources →For Organisations
Risk and decision-making are inseparable in business. Find structured approaches to uncertainty that work for teams, for leadership groups, and for boards at any scale.
Organisation resources →For Governments
Public-sector decisions carry the greatest consequences of all. The frameworks and tools here are designed to help elected representatives and officials to navigate the risks their communities face, and to make better decisions for all.
Government resources →Ways to use it
Available now
Books
Life: Our Uncertain Experiment sets out the Decision Cycle for personal decisions. Editions for organisations and government are in preparation.
About the book →Free to download
Questions and tools
The Decision Cycle questions and 26 supporting tools for personal decisions, to download, print and use offline.
Personal resources →Coming soon
Tools for business and government
Decision Cycle tools for business and government will help decision-makers and their advisers to approach decisions and risk in a structured way and to carry forward the learnings from each.
Resources →Available now
Training and consulting
Training in the Decision Cycle, and help with applying it to real decisions with real risks and real consequences - for leaders, organisations and government.
Get in touch →What's new
- October 2026The Decision Cycle questions and 26 personal tools are now available to download.
- October 2026Life: Our Uncertain Experiment is available from Amazon.
- In developmentDecision Cycle tools for business and government.